ON April 18  I blogged Wales! Wales! which featured in it this

“On March 18 the denizens of Sleepy Hollow otherwise known as theWales Assembly Senedd put away their books and pencils and went out into the wild wood ready to do battle (handbags at 50 paces) yards, in the May 5 Assembly election.

This has produced a stirring in the undergrowth of the Wales media and a sharpening of quill pens in anticipation of a battle royal between the opposing forces competing for the electorate’s votes and (hopefully) a dramatic change in the Senedd chamber. (Even if) History tells us this is most unlikely.

The cut and thrust of a ruling party and an effective opposition that gives steel to this kind of politics is still rare.

Facts and factors make it most unlikely and On May 6 Wales’ political scene will be much the same.

Why? Well our electoral system won’t produce change unless there is seismic change in the Welsh peoples voting patterns or our political parties “Get it” about what the 40 past the post and 20 PR based AM seats will be shared.

The thirty constituency seats won by Labour, 75 per cent in 2011, islikely to be the most it can win overall as in the 20 Added Members (PR)Regional list voting) the number of seats won in the constituencies is taken into account in the calculations.

This makes it difficult for Labour to win an overall majority but it is almost certain there anti-Tory majority. Even if UKIP do well.